How do UK predicted grades work, and what happens if my child misses them on results day?

Question

Priscilla Han · Accepted Answer

Predicted grades are your school's formal prediction of the final A-Level or IB grades your child is expected to achieve — submitted with the UCAS application before exams are even sat, and used by universities to decide what offer to make. UK offers are almost always CONDITIONAL: an offer 'conditional on AAB' becomes a place only if those exact grades come in on results day. If your child misses, it is recoverable — the firm-choice university may still accept them (often at their discretion if they're close), they may drop to their lower insurance choice, or they enter Clearing to find another place. The honest takeaway: predicted grades drive the whole UK offer, so plan for the realistic outcome, not just the dream one. Predicted grades are decided by the school — usually the subject teachers, signed off by a head of sixth form or counsellor — based on mock exams, coursework and classroom performance. They are a professional judgement, not a guess and not a wish. Schools are encouraged to predict aspirationally but realistically: high enough to open doors at the universities a student could genuinely reach, but grounded in real evidence of what they're on track to achieve. Universities use those predictions to make offers, and in the UK an offer is normally CONDITIONAL on specified final grades — for example 'conditional on AAB' or, for the IB, '36 points including 6,6,5 at Higher Level'. A student then picks two: a firm choice (their first preference) and an insurance choice, which should be a university with a genuinely lower grade requirement so it acts as a real safety net rather than a second version of the same reach. On results day, three things can happen if your child misses the firm offer. First, the firm university may confirm the place anyway — they have discretion, and if the student is only narrowly short they often still accept, especially in a year when they have spare places. Second, if the firm is declined but the insurance grades are met, the student drops to the insurance place automatically. Third, if both are missed, the student enters Clearing, where universities with remaining places make new offers — many strong courses appear in Clearing every year, so it is a route to a good outcome, not a failure. If your child EXCEEDS their predictions, there are usually options too — including processes that let confirmed students reconsider a higher-ranked university. The exact mechanism and its name have changed over the years and may change again, so check what the current UCAS cycle offers rather than assuming last year's rules still apply. For internationally-mobile families this carries real, practical weight. Because the whole UK offer hangs on predictions, engage your child's school early and directly about them — ask what they intend to predict and on what evidence, and make sure mocks are taken seriously, since they are the single biggest input. A prediction that is too LOW can lock a capable student out of universities they'd have reached; one that is too HIGH leads to conditional offers they can't meet, ending in a scramble through Clearing. Neither extreme helps. Build a balanced list of five UCAS choices: one or two genuine reaches, a couple that match the realistic prediction, and at least one true safety. If every choice is a reach you can only meet with flawless exam results, you have left yourself no margin. Note too that UCAS processes — including the personal statement format and how Clearing runs — do change between cycles, so always confirm the current year's process on the official UCAS site before relying on any specific detail.